Cardiff City vs Burnley
Our model puts a Cardiff City win at 44.3% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.4 to 1.08.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1558 against 1577, a gap of 19 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Burnley's attack should find room against Cardiff City's defence, by 108 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Burnley are off their season peak
Burnley peaked at 1645 this season and sit at 1577 today, 68 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.