Cagliari vs Frosinone
Our model puts a Cagliari win at 43.3% in this Serie A fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.28.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1632 against 1621, a gap of 11 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Frosinone take 18.2 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
41.7% of Cagliari's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
79.1% of the shots on target Frosinone face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.