C.D. Nacional vs Académico de Viseu

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 15:30

Win probability

61%

C.D. Nacional wins

20%

Draw

18%

Académico de Viseu wins

xG Home

2.18

C.D. Nacional

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.08

Académico de Viseu

Analysis

Our model puts a C.D. Nacional win at 61.4% in this Primeira Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.18 to 1.08.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.5% of the time — 474 fixtures in that band. That is 8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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