Burgos vs RC Celta Fortuna
Our model puts a Burgos win at 73.7% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.49 to 0.78.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70% of the time — 237 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Burgos are on a run
Burgos arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
35.3% of Burgos's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
83.3% of the shots on target Burgos face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.