Bromley vs Rotherham United

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 15:00

Win probability

66%

Bromley wins

19%

Draw

15%

Rotherham United wins

xG Home

2.23

Bromley

Blowout %

51%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.94

Rotherham United

Analysis

Our model puts a Bromley win at 65.7% in this FA Cup fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.23 to 0.94.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70% of the time — 237 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Rotherham United are off their season peak

Rotherham United peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1406 today, 94 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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