Boreham Wood vs Wigan Athletic

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 15:00

Win probability

53%

Boreham Wood wins

24%

Draw

23%

Wigan Athletic wins

xG Home

1.74

Boreham Wood

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.04

Wigan Athletic

Analysis

Our model puts a Boreham Wood win at 53.3% in this FA Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.74 to 1.04.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Wigan Athletic are off their season peak

Wigan Athletic peaked at 1528 this season and sit at 1474 today, 54 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export