Benevento vs US Avellino
Our model puts a Benevento win at 50.1% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.53 to 0.97.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1445 against 1466, a gap of 21 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Benevento are hard to beat
Benevento have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Benevento are off their season peak
Benevento peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1445 today, 55 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Benevento take 15.7 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.