Atlante vs Santos

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 03:00

Win probability

30%

Atlante wins

25%

Draw

45%

Santos wins

xG Home

1.22

Atlante

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.57

Santos

Analysis

Our model puts a Santos win at 45.3% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.22 to 1.57.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1490 against 1518, a gap of 28 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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