Arsenal vs Hull City
Our model puts an Arsenal win at 83.6% in this Premier League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.8 to 0.5.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 84.1% of the time — 88 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 4.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Arsenal carry a rating of 2023 against 1585 for Hull City, a gap of 438 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Arsenal's attack should find room against Hull City's defence, by 271 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Arsenal are hard to beat
Arsenal have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Behind the defence
82.8% of the shots on target Arsenal face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 78.4%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.