Aris vs Panetolikos
Our model puts an Aris win at 87.8% in this Greek Super League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 3.2 to 0.47.
The ratings gap
Aris carry a rating of 1625 against 1472 for Panetolikos, a gap of 153 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Aris's attack should find room against Panetolikos's defence, by 96 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Aris are on a run
Aris arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
Panetolikos struggles to hit the target: 26.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Panetolikos manage 8.7 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Panetolikos collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.3 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
40% of Aris's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 25 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 85.1%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.