Alverca vs Casa Pia
Our model puts an Alverca win at 52.6% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.61 to 0.95.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1522 against 1492, a gap of 30 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Finding the target
Alverca struggles to hit the target: 27.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Casa Pia struggles to hit the target: 27.4% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Casa Pia manage 9.4 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Casa Pia collect 3.6 cards a match, on 14.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.