Altrincham vs Notts County
Our model puts a Notts County win at 55.5% in this FA Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.18 to 1.99.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.5% of the time — 474 fixtures in that band. That is 8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1484 against 1476, a gap of 8 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Behind the defence
58.3% of the shots on target Notts County face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.