AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC
Our model puts an AJ Auxerre win at 37.7% in this Ligue 1 fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.25.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Paris FC at 1.91, which implies about 52.4%. Our model has it at 35.5% — 16.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.