ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam
Our model puts an ADO Den Haag win at 42.1% in this Eredivisie fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.33.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1492 against 1507, a gap of 15 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sparta Rotterdam's attack should find room against ADO Den Haag's defence, by 106 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
52.5% of the shots on target Sparta Rotterdam face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.