1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98
Our model puts a 1. FC Nürnberg win at 53% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.74 to 1.05.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack should find room against SV Darmstadt 98's defence, by 94 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.