Vitória vs Fluminense

Friday, 6 November 2026 at 23:00

Win probability

50%

Vitória wins

25%

Draw

25%

Fluminense wins

xG Home

1.59

Vitória

Blowout %

35%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.05

Fluminense

Analysis

Our model puts a Vitória win at 49.8% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.59 to 1.05.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 744 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 30 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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