Venezia vs Udinese
Our model puts a Venezia win at 37.3% in this Serie A fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.23.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.1% of the time — 883 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Venezia are off their season peak
Venezia peaked at 1613 this season and sit at 1568 today, 45 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Venezia take 15.8 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.