Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Our model puts a Toulouse win at 46.3% in this Ligue 1 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.07.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 744 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Toulouse's attack should find room against Strasbourg's defence, by 94 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Strasbourg are off their season peak
Strasbourg peaked at 1748 this season and sit at 1686 today, 63 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Strasbourg hits the target more often than almost anyone: 42.5% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
83.3% of Toulouse's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.