San Lorenzo vs Platense
Our model puts a San Lorenzo win at 45.9% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.56 to 1.18.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,598 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.4% of the time — 790 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1500 against 1489, a gap of 11 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.