Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg

Friday, 6 November 2026 at 18:00

Win probability

47%

Hammarby IF wins

24%

Draw

29%

IF Elfsborg wins

xG Home

1.68

Hammarby IF

Blowout %

39%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.26

IF Elfsborg

Analysis

Our model puts a Hammarby IF win at 46.9% in this Swedish Allsvenskan fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.68 to 1.26.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 744 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1519 against 1495, a gap of 24 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 30 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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