Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Our model puts a Hamburg SV win at 39.3% in this Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.42 to 1.32.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.1% of the time — 883 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1598 against 1602, a gap of 4 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Borussia Mönchengladbach collect 3.7 cards a match, on 11.9 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.