Grenoble vs Stade de Reims
Our model puts a Stade de Reims win at 48.8% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.04 to 1.54.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 744 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Stade Reims carry a rating of 1591 against 1460 for Grenoble, a gap of 131 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Grenoble's attack will struggle to break down Stade de Reims's defence, by 92 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Stade de Reims are hard to beat
Stade de Reims have gone 17 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Finding the target
Grenoble struggles to hit the target: 26.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Grenoble manage 9 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.