Dunkerque vs Guingamp
Our model puts a Dunkerque win at 45.1% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.43 to 1.07.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 744 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1499 against 1480, a gap of 19 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Finding the target
Dunkerque hits the target more often than almost anyone: 41.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
75% of Guingamp's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.