● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 30 October 2026
Ligue 2
Dijon FCO vs Red Star FC 93
Friday, 6 November 2026 at 19:00
Win probability
28%
Dijon FCO wins
24%
Draw
48%
Red Star FC 93 wins
xG Home
1.29
Dijon FCO
Blowout %
38%
Dominant win
xG Away
1.75
Red Star FC 93
Analysis
Our model puts a Red Star FC 93 win at 47.8% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.29 to 1.75.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 744 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Published 30 October 2026 · aleavici-football
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