Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

Friday, 6 November 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

37%

Derby County wins

27%

Draw

36%

Bolton Wanderers wins

xG Home

1.27

Derby County

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.25

Bolton Wanderers

Analysis

Our model puts a Derby County win at 37.1% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.25.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.1% of the time — 883 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 30 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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