Castellón vs Eibar
Our model puts a Castellón win at 43.9% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.44 to 1.13.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.1% of the time — 883 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1556 against 1578, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Castellón take 17.3 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
82.6% of the shots on target Castellón face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.