Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United

Friday, 6 November 2026 at 19:30

Win probability

36%

Bristol Rovers wins

27%

Draw

38%

Cambridge United wins

xG Home

1.28

Bristol Rovers

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.33

Cambridge United

Analysis

Our model puts a Cambridge United win at 38% in this FA Cup fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.28 to 1.33.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.1% of the time — 883 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Bristol Rovers are off their season peak

Bristol Rovers peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1450 today, 50 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 30 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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