Ascoli vs Palermo
Our model puts a Palermo win at 42.6% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.47.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.1% of the time — 883 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Palermo carry a rating of 1578 against 1487 for Ascoli, a gap of 91 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Palermo are hard to beat
Palermo have gone 12 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
How often they shoot
Palermo take 17.6 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
82.6% of the shots on target Ascoli face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.