Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg
Our model puts a SC Freiburg win at 41.7% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.47.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 870 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
SC Freiburg carry a rating of 1742 against 1631 for Trabzonspor, a gap of 111 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, SC Freiburg's attack should find room against Trabzonspor's defence, by 152 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Trabzonspor are on a run
Trabzonspor arrive on 6 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
Trabzonspor hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Behind the defence
80.7% of the shots on target Trabzonspor face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.