Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
Our model puts a Sunderland win at 62.8% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.91 to 0.81.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 457 fixtures in that band. That is 9.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Sunderland at 1.45, which implies about 69%. Our model has it at 62.8% — 6.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Behind the defence
51% of the shots on target Sunderland face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.