Sparta Prague vs AFC Bournemouth
Our model puts an AFC Bournemouth win at 60.7% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.84 to 1.85.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 457 fixtures in that band. That is 9.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
AFC Bournemouth carry a rating of 1826 against 1623 for Sparta Prague, a gap of 204 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AFC Bournemouth's attack should find room against Sparta Prague's defence, by 225 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
AFC Bournemouth are on a run
AFC Bournemouth arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
38.9% of AFC Bournemouth's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.