Real Sociedad vs Lyon
Our model puts a Real Sociedad win at 41.2% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.44 to 1.25.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 870 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Real Sociedad at 1.95, which implies about 51.3%. Our model has it at 41.2% — 10.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lyon's attack should find room against Real Sociedad's defence, by 149 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Real Sociedad are on a run
Real Sociedad arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Real Sociedad collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
42.9% of Real Sociedad's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 21 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
75.8% of the shots on target Lyon face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.