Palmeiras vs Remo

Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 22:30

Win probability

46%

Palmeiras wins

27%

Draw

27%

Remo wins

xG Home

1.43

Palmeiras

Blowout %

38%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.03

Remo

Analysis

Our model puts a Palmeiras win at 45.9% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.43 to 1.03.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.6% of the time — 740 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 29 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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