Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen
Our model puts a Viktoria Plzen win at 60.1% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.92 to 1.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 457 fixtures in that band. That is 9.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Lillestrom at 2.7, which implies about 37%. Our model has it at 17.8% — 19.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Viktoria Plzen carry a rating of 1647 against 1483 for Lillestrom, a gap of 164 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lillestrom's attack will struggle to break down Viktoria Plzen's defence, by 120 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.