Hapoel Be'er vs OFI Crete
Our model puts a Hapoel Be'er win at 53.6% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.75 to 1.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.6% of the time — 740 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price OFI Crete at 3.35, which implies about 29.9%. Our model has it at 22.6% — 7.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1488 against 1513, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Finding the target
OFI Crete struggles to hit the target: 28.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
30.8% of OFI Crete's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
76.5% of the shots on target OFI Crete face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.