Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano (Córdoba)
Our model puts a Gimnasia La Plata win at 55.7% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.79 to 0.99.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,598 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 52.6% of the time — 504 fixtures in that band. That is 6.9 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1537 against 1521, a gap of 16 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Gimnasia La Plata are on a run
Gimnasia La Plata arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 9 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.