Getafe vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Our model puts a Brighton & Hove Albion win at 58.8% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.84 to 1.76.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 457 fixtures in that band. That is 9.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Brighton & Hove Albion carry a rating of 1811 against 1620 for Getafe, a gap of 192 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Getafe's attack will struggle to break down Brighton & Hove Albion's defence, by 200 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Getafe struggles to hit the target: 26.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Brighton & Hove Albion take 15.8 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Getafe collect 4.2 cards a match, on 14.7 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.