FC Twente vs Pafos
Our model puts a FC Twente win at 72.2% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.52 to 0.86.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.3% of the time — 229 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 72.2%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.