FC Thun vs Heart of Midlothian

Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 17:45

Win probability

30%

FC Thun wins

24%

Draw

47%

Heart of Midlothian wins

xG Home

1.33

FC Thun

Blowout %

47%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.74

Heart of Midlothian

Analysis

Our model puts a Heart of Midlothian win at 46.6% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.74.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.6% of the time — 740 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 29 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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