CSU Craiova vs Egnatia

Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

53%

CSU Craiova wins

22%

Draw

25%

Egnatia wins

xG Home

1.96

CSU Craiova

Blowout %

58%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.28

Egnatia

Analysis

Our model puts a CSU Craiova win at 52.7% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.96 to 1.28.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.6% of the time — 740 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1525 against 1504, a gap of 21 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 29 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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