Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim
Our model puts a Crystal Palace win at 52% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 1.02.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.6% of the time — 740 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Crystal Palace's attack should find room against TSG Hoffenheim's defence, by 169 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
TSG Hoffenheim are on a run
TSG Hoffenheim arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
TSG Hoffenheim take 15.9 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
52.3% of the shots on target Crystal Palace face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.