Celtic vs Besiktas
Our model puts a Besiktas win at 71% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.91 to 2.51.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.3% of the time — 229 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Besiktas at 2.25, which implies about 44.4%. Our model has it at 71% — 26.6 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
How often they shoot
Besiktas take 15.4 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
77.6% of the shots on target Besiktas face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.