Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise
Our model puts a Celta Vigo win at 58.5% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.92 to 0.99.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 457 fixtures in that band. That is 9.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Union St.-Gilloise at 3.35, which implies about 29.9%. Our model has it at 19.3% — 10.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Union St.-Gilloise are hard to beat
Union St.-Gilloise have gone 14 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
How often they shoot
Celta Vigo manage 9.2 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
79.2% of the shots on target Celta Vigo face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.