Botafogo vs Atlético-MG

Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 00:30

Win probability

35%

Botafogo wins

26%

Draw

39%

Atlético-MG wins

xG Home

1.32

Botafogo

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.39

Atlético-MG

Analysis

Our model puts an Atlético-MG win at 38.8% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.32 to 1.39.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,404 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 870 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 29 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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