Aldosivi vs River Plate

Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 18:00

Win probability

27%

Aldosivi wins

23%

Draw

50%

River Plate wins

xG Home

1.27

Aldosivi

Blowout %

25%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.82

River Plate

Analysis

Our model puts a River Plate win at 49.9% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.82.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,598 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.4% of the time — 790 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 3 November 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export