Slavia Prague vs Arsenal
Our model puts an Arsenal win at 72.6% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.66 to 2.23.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,313 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.8% of the time — 225 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Arsenal carry a rating of 2028 against 1584 for Slavia Prague, a gap of 443 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Arsenal's attack should find room against Slavia Prague's defence, by 326 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
82.8% of the shots on target Arsenal face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.