KV Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

Wednesday, 4 November 2026 at 19:30

Win probability

24%

KV Kortrijk wins

24%

Draw

52%

KV Mechelen wins

xG Home

1.11

KV Kortrijk

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.74

KV Mechelen

Analysis

Our model puts a KV Mechelen win at 51.7% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.11 to 1.74.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,313 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 712 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 28 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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