Flamengo vs Grêmio
Our model puts a Flamengo win at 73% in this Brasileirao fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.45 to 0.78.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,313 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.8% of the time — 225 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Flamengo carry a rating of 1585 against 1481 for Gremio, a gap of 104 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Flamengo are hard to beat
Flamengo have gone 13 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 72.5%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.