Fenerbahce vs Liverpool
Our model puts a Liverpool win at 55.5% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.98 to 1.76.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,313 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.2% of the time — 436 fixtures in that band. That is 9.2 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Liverpool carry a rating of 1878 against 1701 for Fenerbahce, a gap of 178 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Liverpool's attack should find room against Fenerbahce's defence, by 225 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Liverpool are on a run
Liverpool arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
Fenerbahce hits the target more often than almost anyone: 39.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Fenerbahce take 17.4 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Fenerbahce collect 3.2 cards a match, on 12.9 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
72.2% of Liverpool's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.