FC Porto vs Napoli
Our model puts a FC Porto win at 43.4% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.4 to 1.11.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,313 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 37.8% of the time — 831 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1745 against 1761, a gap of 16 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Napoli take 15.6 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
42.9% of Napoli's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 21 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
75.6% of the shots on target Napoli face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.